Performance Snapshot
Charts
Earnings Context
Previous: n/a
Next: n/a
Days to next: n/a
Avg earnings move: n/a
Median earnings move: n/a
Technical Signal Snapshot
RSI: 28.7
Direction score: -0.7
Price vs EMA20: -11.1%
EMA20 vs EMA50: -5.5%
EMA50 vs EMA200: 17.6%
EMA20 slope: -5.7%
Options Volatility Snapshot
Label: IV below recent HV
Expiration: 2026-08-07
Days to expiration: 36
ATM average IV: 38.5%
ATM call / put IV: 40.9% / 36.2%
6M HV: 56.8%
IV minus HV: -18.3%
IV discount vs HV: 32.2%
Expected move: 17.8%
ATM Greeks
Call delta / gamma: 0.4853 / 0.030238
Call theta / vega: -0.0792 / 0.1285
Put delta / gamma: -0.4722 / 0.034104
Put theta / vega: -0.0572 / 0.1283
Greeks are option-market context for the selected ATM expiration, not a trade recommendation.
Grounded Summary
- USO returned -25.2% over 1M, -17.3% over 3M, and 47.2% over 6M.
- Relative performance was -31.2% vs SPY and -40.3% vs QQQ over 3M.
- The thesis field is missing or needs review.
- Headline context: Fetched headlines cluster around: macro/sector (3), uncategorized (2).
- Recent examples: USO 260701 100.00P (USO260701P100000) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo; Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Slide As US-Iran War Shock Sends Oil Soaring: Why INDO, DJT, USO, XOM, CVX Kept Traders On Edge Today - Stocktwits; United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) reports $270M May 2026 loss - Stock Titan.
- Main watch items: thesis needs review, underperforming SPY, underperforming QQQ, IV below HV, RSI washed out.
- Options context: IV below recent HV; ATM average IV is 38.5% versus 6M HV 56.8%.
- Technical context: RSI 28.7 and direction score -0.7.
- Portfolio role/theme: Oil.
- Next review question: What is the current reason for holding USO, and what would invalidate it?
- This is context for review, not a buy or sell recommendation.
Theme: Oil. Sector: n/a. Industry: n/a.
Thesis
Status: needs_review
Thesis: missing
Invalidation: n/a
Catalyst: n/a
Risk Flags
- thesis needs review
- underperforming SPY
- underperforming QQQ
- IV below HV
- RSI washed out
Headline Context
Fetched headlines cluster around: macro/sector (3), uncategorized (2). Recent examples: USO 260701 100.00P (USO260701P100000) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News - Moomoo; Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Slide As US-Iran War Shock Sends Oil Soaring: Why INDO, DJT, USO, XOM, CVX Kept Traders On Edge Today - Stocktwits; United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) reports $270M May 2026 loss - Stock Titan.
Questions for Next Review
- What is the current reason for holding USO, and what would invalidate it? Codex: Review USO against trend mixed, 3M return -17.3%, and headline context before changing the thesis.
- Why has USO lagged SPY over the last 3 months? Codex: 3M relative performance vs SPY is -31.2%; review whether news or company metrics explain the gap.
- Why has USO lagged QQQ over the last 3 months? Codex: 3M relative performance vs QQQ is -40.3%; compare that against headline tone and thesis expectations.
- Why is USO implied volatility below recent realized volatility? Codex: 6M realized volatility is 56.8% and options context is IV below recent HV.
- Is USO's washed-out RSI tied to thesis damage or temporary pressure? Codex: The evidence packet has no complete thesis, so the next review should define the reason to own it and invalidation.
- What would improve USO's weak technical direction score? Codex: Direction score is -0.7, with price vs EMA20 at -11.1%.
Headlines
USO 260701 100.00P (USO260701P100000) Stock Options Chain | Quotes & News Moomoo
Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Futures Slide As US-Iran War Shock Sends Oil Soaring: Why INDO, DJT, USO, XOM, CVX Kept Traders On Edge Today Stocktwits
United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO) reports $270M May 2026 loss Stock Titan
XLE vs USO: Energy Stocks or Direct Crude Oil Exposure? EBC Financial Group
USO Sees Decline in Crude and Gasoline Inventories GuruFocus
Evidence
JSON: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/USO.json
Markdown: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/USO.md