Performance Snapshot
Charts
Earnings Context
Previous: 2026-05-20
Next: 2026-08-26
Days to next: 55
Avg earnings move: 1.5%
Median earnings move: 0.7%
Technical Signal Snapshot
RSI: 41.8
Direction score: -0.2804
Price vs EMA20: -3.5%
EMA20 vs EMA50: -0.7%
EMA50 vs EMA200: 6.6%
EMA20 slope: -2.0%
Options Volatility Snapshot
Label: IV near recent HV
Expiration: 2026-08-07
Days to expiration: 36
ATM average IV: 39.4%
ATM call / put IV: 40.1% / 38.7%
6M HV: 37.8%
IV minus HV: 1.6%
IV discount vs HV: -4.1%
Expected move: 11.9%
ATM Greeks
Call delta / gamma: 0.551 / 0.01606
Call theta / vega: -0.1487 / 0.2431
Put delta / gamma: -0.449 / 0.01664
Put theta / vega: -0.1175 / 0.2431
Greeks are option-market context for the selected ATM expiration, not a trade recommendation.
Grounded Summary
- NVDA returned -12.2% over 1M, 11.3% over 3M, and 4.3% over 6M.
- Relative performance was -2.6% vs SPY and -11.7% vs QQQ over 3M.
- The thesis field is missing or needs review.
- Headline context: Fetched headlines cluster around: uncategorized (3), macro/sector (1), analyst/sentiment (1).
- Recent examples: Nvidia stock is sagging.
- Here's what's behind the negative short-term trend.
- - Yahoo Finance; These Experts See 'Screaming Buys' in AI Stocks After a Recent Pullback - Investopedia; Prediction: This Will Be the Next AI Stock to Split (Hint: It's Not Micron or Sandisk) - Yahoo Finance.
- Main watch items: thesis needs review, underperforming QQQ.
- Next earnings is listed as 2026-08-26; typical close-to-close earnings move is 1.5% on average.
- Options context: IV near recent HV; ATM average IV is 39.4% versus 6M HV 37.8%.
- Technical context: RSI 41.8 and direction score -0.2804.
- Portfolio role/theme: AI infrastructure.
- Next review question: What is the current reason for holding NVDA, and what would invalidate it?
- This is context for review, not a buy or sell recommendation.
Theme: AI infrastructure. Sector: Technology. Industry: Semiconductors.
Thesis
Status: needs_review
Thesis: missing
Invalidation: n/a
Catalyst: n/a
Risk Flags
- thesis needs review
- underperforming QQQ
Headline Context
Fetched headlines cluster around: uncategorized (3), macro/sector (1), analyst/sentiment (1). Recent examples: Nvidia stock is sagging. Here's what's behind the negative short-term trend. - Yahoo Finance; These Experts See 'Screaming Buys' in AI Stocks After a Recent Pullback - Investopedia; Prediction: This Will Be the Next AI Stock to Split (Hint: It's Not Micron or Sandisk) - Yahoo Finance.
Questions for Next Review
- What is the current reason for holding NVDA, and what would invalidate it? Codex: Review NVDA against trend mixed, 3M return 11.3%, and headline context before changing the thesis.
- Why has NVDA lagged QQQ over the last 3 months? Codex: 3M relative performance vs QQQ is -11.7%; compare that against headline tone and thesis expectations.
Headlines
Nvidia stock is sagging. Here's what's behind the negative short-term trend. Yahoo Finance Nvidia Stock Drops at It Struggles to Hold $200 Barron's Nvidia: The Drawdown Is An Opportunity To Pounce (NASDAQ:NVDA) Seeking Alpha
These Experts See 'Screaming Buys' in AI Stocks After a Recent Pullback Investopedia
Prediction: This Will Be the Next AI Stock to Split (Hint: It's Not Micron or Sandisk) Yahoo Finance
Nvidia Stock, Gold, and Oil: Where to Invest $100,000 Right Now Bloomberg
Here are Monday's biggest analyst calls: Nvidia, Apple, Tesla, Seagate, Warby Parker, AppLovin & more CNBC
Evidence
JSON: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/NVDA.json
Markdown: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/NVDA.md