Performance Snapshot
Charts
Earnings Context
Previous: 2026-05-05
Next: 2026-08-06
Days to next: 35
Avg earnings move: 15.3%
Median earnings move: 14.9%
Technical Signal Snapshot
RSI: 38.9
Direction score: -0.0739
Price vs EMA20: -15.2%
EMA20 vs EMA50: 8.1%
EMA50 vs EMA200: 29.8%
EMA20 slope: -2.4%
Options Volatility Snapshot
Label: IV near recent HV
Expiration: 2026-08-07
Days to expiration: 36
ATM average IV: 108.3%
ATM call / put IV: 110.3% / 106.3%
6M HV: 102.5%
IV minus HV: 5.8%
IV discount vs HV: -5.7%
Expected move: 32.2%
ATM Greeks
Call delta / gamma: 0.588 / 0.054146
Call theta / vega: -0.0401 / 0.0254
Put delta / gamma: -0.4137 / 0.056239
Put theta / vega: -0.036 / 0.0254
Greeks are option-market context for the selected ATM expiration, not a trade recommendation.
Grounded Summary
- CIFR returned -21.1% over 1M, 64.2% over 3M, and 42.2% over 6M.
- Relative performance was 50.2% vs SPY and 41.1% vs QQQ over 3M.
- The thesis field is missing or needs review.
- Headline context: Fetched headlines cluster around: macro/sector (3), uncategorized (2).
- Recent examples: Can The latest Funding Round Help Cipher Digital (CIFR) Stock Surge?
- - Yahoo Finance; Morgan Stanley Sees Big Upside In WULF, CIFR, MARA After Bitcoin Miners Pivot To AI Data Centers - Stocktwits; Jefferies Initiates Cipher Digital Inc (CIFR) Stock.
- Here’s What It’s Saying - Yahoo Finance.
- Main watch items: thesis needs review, high volatility, large drawdown.
- Next earnings is listed as 2026-08-06; typical close-to-close earnings move is 15.3% on average.
- Options context: IV near recent HV; ATM average IV is 108.3% versus 6M HV 102.5%.
- Technical context: RSI 38.9 and direction score -0.0739.
- Portfolio role/theme: Bitcoin miners.
- Next review question: What is the current reason for holding CIFR, and what would invalidate it?
- This is context for review, not a buy or sell recommendation.
Theme: Bitcoin miners. Sector: Technology. Industry: Information Technology Services.
Thesis
Status: needs_review
Thesis: missing
Invalidation: n/a
Catalyst: n/a
Risk Flags
- thesis needs review
- high volatility
- large drawdown
Headline Context
Fetched headlines cluster around: macro/sector (3), uncategorized (2). Recent examples: Can The latest Funding Round Help Cipher Digital (CIFR) Stock Surge? - Yahoo Finance; Morgan Stanley Sees Big Upside In WULF, CIFR, MARA After Bitcoin Miners Pivot To AI Data Centers - Stocktwits; Jefferies Initiates Cipher Digital Inc (CIFR) Stock. Here’s What It’s Saying - Yahoo Finance.
Questions for Next Review
- What is the current reason for holding CIFR, and what would invalidate it? Codex: Review CIFR against trend mixed, 3M return 64.2%, and headline context before changing the thesis.
- Is CIFR's drawdown company-specific, sector-driven, or broad market beta? Codex: 6M max drawdown is -36.7% with beta SPY 3.950216461771389 and sector Technology.
- Is CIFR's volatility expected for its role in the portfolio? Codex: 6M realized volatility is 102.5% and options context is IV near recent HV.
- Is CIFR sized for its typical earnings move? Codex: Next earnings is 2026-08-06 with typical move 15.3% and expected move 32.2%.
Headlines
Can The latest Funding Round Help Cipher Digital (CIFR) Stock Surge? Yahoo Finance
Morgan Stanley Sees Big Upside In WULF, CIFR, MARA After Bitcoin Miners Pivot To AI Data Centers Stocktwits
Jefferies Initiates Cipher Digital Inc (CIFR) Stock. Here’s What It’s Saying Yahoo Finance
Cipher Digital Slides as Bitcoin Weakness and Recent Financing Overhang Weigh on Shares Quiver Quantitative
A $27M-Per-Megawatt Data Center Deal Just Gave Bitcoin Miners A Price Tag — And VanEck Says CIFR, HUT Are Way Too Cheap TradingView
Evidence
JSON: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/CIFR.json
Markdown: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/CIFR.md