Performance Snapshot
Charts
Earnings Context
Previous: 2026-04-23
Next: 2026-07-23
Days to next: 21
Avg earnings move: 9.1%
Median earnings move: 8.5%
Technical Signal Snapshot
RSI: 76.7
Direction score: 1.0
Price vs EMA20: 10.4%
EMA20 vs EMA50: 10.9%
EMA50 vs EMA200: 10.2%
EMA20 slope: 7.3%
Options Volatility Snapshot
Label: IV near recent HV
Expiration: 2026-08-07
Days to expiration: 36
ATM average IV: 53.4%
ATM call / put IV: 54.3% / 52.5%
6M HV: 50.8%
IV minus HV: 2.6%
IV discount vs HV: -5.1%
Expected move: 15.9%
ATM Greeks
Call delta / gamma: 0.5467 / 0.129008
Call theta / vega: -0.0181 / 0.0224
Put delta / gamma: -0.322 / 0.12074
Put theta / vega: -0.0139 / 0.0203
Greeks are option-market context for the selected ATM expiration, not a trade recommendation.
Grounded Summary
- AAL returned 29.3% over 1M, 61.8% over 3M, and 17.5% over 6M.
- Relative performance was 47.9% vs SPY and 38.8% vs QQQ over 3M.
- The thesis field is missing or needs review.
- Headline context: Fetched headlines cluster around: uncategorized (3), partnerships/contracts (1), financing/balance sheet (1).
- Recent examples: American Airlines Stock Surges 18%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree - Trefis; AAL Stock On Track To Hit 4-Month High After Starlink Partnership Announcement - Stocktwits; Why Did PANW, AAL, MRNA Surge To 52-Week Highs?
- - Yahoo Finance.
- Main watch items: thesis needs review, large drawdown, RSI stretched.
- Next earnings is listed as 2026-07-23; typical close-to-close earnings move is 9.1% on average.
- Options context: IV near recent HV; ATM average IV is 53.4% versus 6M HV 50.8%.
- Technical context: RSI 76.7 and direction score 1.0.
- Portfolio role/theme: Travel.
- Next review question: What is the current reason for holding AAL, and what would invalidate it?
- This is context for review, not a buy or sell recommendation.
Theme: Travel. Sector: Industrials. Industry: Airlines.
Thesis
Status: needs_review
Thesis: missing
Invalidation: n/a
Catalyst: n/a
Risk Flags
- thesis needs review
- large drawdown
- RSI stretched
Headline Context
Fetched headlines cluster around: uncategorized (3), partnerships/contracts (1), financing/balance sheet (1). Recent examples: American Airlines Stock Surges 18%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree - Trefis; AAL Stock On Track To Hit 4-Month High After Starlink Partnership Announcement - Stocktwits; Why Did PANW, AAL, MRNA Surge To 52-Week Highs? - Yahoo Finance.
Questions for Next Review
- What is the current reason for holding AAL, and what would invalidate it? Codex: Review AAL against trend above 50d and 200d, 3M return 61.8%, and headline context before changing the thesis.
- Is AAL's drawdown company-specific, sector-driven, or broad market beta? Codex: 6M max drawdown is -36.4% with beta SPY 1.8293915121695479 and sector Industrials.
- Does the AAL thesis need review before earnings on 2026-07-23? Codex: The evidence packet has no complete thesis, so the next review should define the reason to own it and invalidation.
- Is AAL sized for its typical earnings move? Codex: Next earnings is 2026-07-23 with typical move 9.1% and expected move 15.9%.
- Is AAL's RSI stretched enough to affect review timing? Codex: RSI is 76.7 and direction score is 1.0.
Headlines
American Airlines Stock Surges 18%, With A 9-Day Winning Spree Trefis
AAL Stock On Track To Hit 4-Month High After Starlink Partnership Announcement Stocktwits
Why Did PANW, AAL, MRNA Surge To 52-Week Highs? Yahoo Finance
2 Cash-Producing Stocks with Competitive Advantages and 1 That Underwhelm The Globe and Mail
Patrick Industries, Lippert announce all-stock merger WNDU
Evidence
JSON: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/AAL.json
Markdown: /home/amirali/Documents/code/portfolio-analytics/outputs/evidence/AAL.md